32082 Real Estate Market Healthy Amidst Weakening National Housing Forecast

By Gwinn Volen

A few articles came out recently that sent alarm bells off for some home buyers and sellers. October 19, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled “Housing Market is Faltering and Strong Economy Offers No Cure,” while the Financial Times published “U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Lowest Levels since Nov 2015.“ Both articles are based on a press release from the National Association of Realtors, which conducts quarterly studies.

We’ve since had a few anxious customers worrying that another 2008 is coming.  Our team tracks numbers very closely, so when I see articles like these, sparking concern over real estate bubbles, I question what I’m missing, having not seen the same trends in our local real estate market. So, I decided to compare the national data to our local data.

Here’s what it looks like:

First, to put the sales figures in context, we need to understand the number of homes sold by price range since Ponte Vedra Beach home sales skew toward the higher end of the market compared to the national averages.

Existing Single-Family Homes Sales Up 14% in Ponte Vedra Beach: A Healthy Market

Sales figures show a very different picture locally versus nationally. While national sales have dropped -9% (non-seasonally adjusted), Ponte Vedra Beach is up +14% from one year ago, and up 1% from August.  Here is the breakdown of sales by price:

Supply Has Declined 13% Locally While Increasing 5% Nationally

The supply of homes on the market shows that our local market has dropped from 6 months to 5.2 months, which demonstrates a slight move toward a seller’s market.

Months Supply is the measurement the real estate industry uses to indicate whether you are in a buyer’s or seller’s market. A lower supply indicates a seller’s market, and a higher supply indicates a buyer’s market.  Here is the breakdown for the 32082 market in all price ranges.

Local Supply Has Declined Across All Price Ranges

Ponte Vedra Beach Days on Market Has Declined 7.4% Year Over Year

Days on market (DOM) tells us, on average, how long it takes to sell a home. Our local, Ponte Vedra Beach numbers, show a decrease of DOM of 7.4%.  This is a positive sign; however, the over $1M market increased by 8.7%. Unfortunately, these numbers aren’t available nationally. Note that DOM varies widely depending on price point.

The median home sale price has increased by 8.5% in Ponte Vedra Beach versus 4.2% nationally

What’s the Takeaway? Is the Real Estate Market Going to Crash?

Overall, local market indicators are not signalling a bubble. We may see an adjustment at some point, but the local numbers have yet to show it’s imminent. The difference in trends, locally versus nationally, seems to be due to the average price of homes sold.  The national market has a median sales price of $258,100 while our market averages $465,000. In fact, the only market segment where sales have declined, year over year, is the under $250,000 market. All other price ranges show increases in sales.

The national decline is attributed to increasing mortgage rates, which are up about 1% from last year, as well as a lack of inventory (particularly in the <$250,000 price point). Low inventory and higher rates definitely impact affordability, particularly in the most affordable portion of the market.

The Ponte Vedra Beach Real Estate market doesn’t fit into the affordable housing category.  And the under $250,000 market makes up a small portion of our market, with the bulk of that inventory being condo inventory.

Supplemental Data:

A More Granular Look at the More Popular Price Points in Ponte Vedra Beach

• $800,000 to $1M: There was a 62% increase in closed sales in the last year The closed sales price increased a conservative 1% and there is an 8-month supply of homes in this price range, down 15% from September of last year.
• $1M to $1.5M: Closed sales saw an increase of 66% over the last year, though sales prices decreased 2%. There is a 10.5 month supply of homes, down 23% from last year (good news for sellers).
• $1.5M to $2M: Closed sales decreased by 11%, but sales prices are up 11% from last September, and months supply is at 8.6, down 40%!
• $2m to 3M: Sales are up 56% (much due to Old Ponte Vedra), with a minor sales price increase of 1%, and an increase in months supply to 11.5 months, up 28%.
• $3M and Up: Sales are up 129% (some nice oceanfront properties moved). Prices saw a 1.5% increase, and there is a 17 months supply, up 26%.

National Association of Realtors Data

• NAR Stats for September
• NAR Raw Data
• NAR Supplemental Data Existing Single Family

Local Real Estate Market Data

• All local data is taken directly from the Northeast Florida Multiple Listings Service. All charts represent a look at sales from September 2017 to September 2018.

About the Author:

Gwinn Volen is a top real estate agent on team Young & Volen, Ponte Vedra Club Realty She works with business partner Jayne Young and buyer’s agents Rachel Day and Kacey Roache.