by Gwinn Volen
“‘Massive’ Housing Bubble About to Burst.” “The Housing Market Hit A Wall In May/June.” “Why Are Home Prices Still Rising?” “Home Prices Are Still Sky-High.”
Even the experts can’t figure it out. But the general consensus is that high interest rates are keeping supply low as existing homeowners are hesitant to swap a low-interest rate mortgage for a high interest rate mortgage. Despite high interest rates deterring some, many buyers still need to move for various personal reasons, which is sustaining current inventory prices.
Market Overview
As most of you savvy readers know, real estate is a “local” business. What is happening in the broader marketplace may not be happening in your local market.
So, here is what is happening in the Jacksonville and Beaches areas. Agents and sellers are seeing a softening in demand and prices in some areas, however, data shows our real estate market remains solid. Northeast Florida presents a mixed bag: while certain regions have experienced declines since 2022, others are showing growth. Notably, Duval and St. Johns County together have seen an average appreciation of about 5% from 2023 to 2024. Ponte Vedra Beach and Nocatee have shown a continued steady overall annual increase of about 7%. Conversely, Jacksonville Beach has seen a slight drop, and South Ponte Vedra has seen bigger declines. Atlantic Beach has seen fluctuation – up from 2022 but slightly down from 2023. And Neptune Beach was down in 2023 but has seen a spike in home prices in 2024.
Ponte Vedra Beach Single Family Homes By Year
Quarterly Insights
Quarterly data offers an additional perspective. For Ponte Vedra Beach, Q2 of 2022 marked the peak for 32082. However, Q2 2024 is only down 2.69% from that peak.
The kind of fluctuation you see reflected in the chart below underscores the importance of understanding short-term trends vs annual trends. Within a 12-month period, price increases/decreases may flip from quarter to quarter based on the news cycle or other short-term factors. If we start seeing steady quarter-to-quarter increases or decreases, then we can view that as a more meaningful trendline and not a quarterly hiccup.
Ponte Vedra Beach Single Family Homes By Quarter
Niche Market Strength
Niche markets continue to thrive. High-demand properties such as oceanfront homes south of Mickler Road to Atlantic Beach, Intracoastal properties, and renovated homes, in general, are selling quickly. With limited land availability and growing interest in Northeast Florida over South Florida, prices for these desirable properties are expected to continue rising.
Advice for Sellers
There are buyers out there but the pool is not as robust as it was 12 or 24 months ago. If you own a property that does not meet the highly desirable criteria that I described earlier, consider setting a price at or just below market value to help generate interest and competitive offers.
Advice for Buyers
For those seeking a permanent residence, it’s crucial not to be swayed by national real estate headlines. Opportunities exist, but inventory levels are insufficient to trigger a significant market crash. Focus on what meets your housing needs and priorities. Investors should monitor the “days on market” closely, especially as we approach election periods when the market typically slows, potentially revealing opportunities.
By staying informed with local data and trends, both buyers and sellers can navigate the Jacksonville and Beaches real estate market more effectively.
If you are thinking of buying or selling real estate in Ponte Vedra Beach, the Beaches or the Jacksonville area, call Gwinn Volen with The Volen Group at 904-314-5188 or email thevolengroup@gmail.com.
About The Author
Gwinn Volen is a REALTOR, Owner and CEO for The Volen Group, Keller Williams Luxury International, a top real estate team in Northeast Florida's Ponte Vedra Beach community with annual sales of over $100M. For real estate in Ponte Vedra Beach or the surrounding area, contact Gwinn Volen at 904.314.5188 or email thevolengroup@gmail.com.
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