by Gwinn Volen

Regardless of political affiliation, the upcoming election has become a hot topic in real estate discussions. Some buyers feel anxious about making a purchase just before the election, opting to wait for the outcome rather than committing to a decision.  

While it is common to see a slight slowdown in real estate activity before the November presidential election, historically, elections have not significantly impacted the market.

Slight Home Sales Decline Leading Up to Elections

Chart of  seasonal real estate sales

As you can see in the above chart, some buyers do choose to pause their home searches in anticipation of the election, though this trend has not been dramatic in the past. Additionally, this time of year typically sees a seasonal decline in activity, and sales numbers usually rebound in January.

Sales After Elections Rarely Decline

sales

Historically, there have been only two instances where real estate sales declined after an election: in 1980, following Ronald Reagan’s election, and in 1988, after George H. W. Bush was elected.

In the accompanying graph, you’ll notice that home prices fell only once after an election—in 2008, when Barack Obama was elected. This decline was primarily driven by lax regulations in the mortgage industry, not by the election itself.

Post-Election Home Prices Show Normal Appreciation

U.S. Annual Median Sales Sold chart

What Does This Mean For Buyers and Sellers

Ultimately, while elections can induce anxiety for many, the data suggests they do not significantly influence the real estate market.

Buyers who wait to see the election outcome are unlikely to witness a major shift in market dynamics. In fact, the reduced competition around an election could be an optimal time to buy.

Sellers need not worry if showing traffic is slower this month; historical data indicates that the market tends to bounce back. Any current traffic decline does not necessarily indicate a downturn in the market.

About the Author

Gwinn Volen Realtor

Gwinn Volen is a REALTOR, Owner and CEO for The Volen Group, Keller Williams Luxury International, a top real estate team in Northeast Florida's Ponte Vedra Beach community with annual sales of over $100M. For real estate in Ponte Vedra Beach or the surrounding area, contact Gwinn Volen at 904.314.5188 or email thevolengroup@gmail.com.


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