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Jacksonville Home Prices in 2023 and 2024 Predictions

by Gwinn Volen

2023 was a year of home price course correction and normalization after 2 years of extreme appreciation. At a national level, 2023 saw the lowest number of home sales since 1995, yet prices still increased 1%, to a record high.

Quarterly Sales Price for Duval and St Johns County: 2019-2023

Duval and St. Johns County’s home prices closed out the year with a -0.1% decline. The above graph shows resale property home prices (single-family homes only) in Duval and St Johns County by quarter since 2019. Prices see-sawed from 2019-2021 but you then see the steady rise in prices we saw in 2021 and 2022. You can also see the flattening of prices in 2023, and though Q4 is a little down from Q3, overall prices are steady. Though the above graph depicts the macro Jacksonville market, real estate is decidedly micro. Ponte Vedra Beach is an example of that.

Quarterly Sales Price for Ponte Vedra Beach: 2019-2023

The average appreciation over time across the US is 4%. Ponte Vedra Beach has historically been higher than the national average, with a typical appreciation of 6-8%. 2023 was no exception, as shown in the above chart. While some areas in Jacksonville are down or flat, Ponte Vedra Beach saw an average appreciation of 7% in 2023.

Keep in mind, that is the average. Some price points and some communities may not have seen the same appreciation.

What do we expect in 2024?

Moderate Growth in Home Prices

Forecasters predict that home prices will continue to appreciate through 2024 and beyond at a typical, and slower pace, relative to the post-COVID years. I expect that to be the case locally. Areas that dropped will recover. I do not expect a wild increase in any one area barring a major dip in mortgage rates.

Slight Increase in Home Inventory

The fall was a slower time in real estate here in NE Florida. Thus, there is a spillover of inventory as we move into 2024. Jacksonville, as a whole, has 3.5 months of inventory, which means it would take 3.5 months to clear those properties off the market (6 months supply is considered a balanced market). Other areas like Ponte Vedra Beach show a higher inventory. Ponte Vedra Beach currently has 5.7 months of inventory. Why the discrepancy? The 32082 zip code has a higher price point. Typical days on the market is longer for a $1M+ homes. 

Inventory across Jacksonville may go up in Q1 and Q2 as inventory is added to the existing set of homes.  There is also talk of a “Silver Tsunami” as boomers start downsizing, which would mean added inventory.

Eventual Drop in Mortgage Rates

National experts predict mortgage rates to tick down steadily throughout 2024. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group predicts 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drop to just under 6% this year, and then stabilize. No one expects rates to reach the artificially low rates seen in 2021 and 2022.

Some Increase in Home Sales

Total home sales were down 19% across the US in 2023. In the wider Jacksonville area, closed home sales were down 12%. If mortgage rates ease up as predicted and inventory goes up, I expect closed sales will tick up in 2024.

In Summary

For Sellers: Don’t fret. Though there is more inventory and homes may sit longer, our local housing market is healthy. If you are thinking about listing your home, feel good about it. Chances are you have a generous amount of equity in your property. Let your agent guide you on smart pricing.

For Buyers: If you are waiting for prices to drop before you buy, there’s nothing to suggest that they will. Waiting just means you’ll pay more later. If you are worried about mortgage rates, talk with your lender or agent about rate buydowns. There are creative solutions to satisfying new home dreams.


About the Author

Gwinn Volen is the owner of The Volen GroupKeller Williams Luxury International a Ponte Vedra Beach top-producing real estate team selling in Northeast Florida with annual sales of over $100M.

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