By Gwinn Volen
October real estates sales remained strong for the Jacksonville area.
We saw a very small seasonal dip in August, but prices have continued to climb due to low supply and high demand.
When the 2020 pandemic lockdown was eased, we watched real estate take off with astronomical appreciation. It has been nothing but an upward climb since August 2020, and though anecdotally some, even myself, will say they feel like it’s quieting down (it could just be exhaustion), the numbers tell a different story, with no obvious end in sight.
Though prices aren’t climbing quite as rapidly as they were in the first half of 2021, appreciation continues at a healthy pace. See the chart below for a look at home prices in Ponte Vedra Beach.
Factors Driving the Ponte Vedra Real Estate Market Strength
Perceived affordability relative to other areas
Relative to some areas across the US (Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angles, New York City, DC), our home prices feel decently affordable. So, though a house in Ponte Vedra Beach may feel overpriced to a local homebuyer, the price may not bother an out of towner who is used to an even higher market. This continues, and will continue, to drive prices up. Our undiscovered slice of heaven is not so undiscovered anymore. And, if you compare to South Florida, our home prices are a bargain.
COVID and change of life relocations
Moves to Florida continue with NE Florida on the discovery list. No state income taxes, mild seasonal weather and strong schools, particularly in St Johns County, are a driving force. If you take a look at St Johns county population growth, the 10th fastest growing county in the US, you start to understand the influx of new faces in our area.
Millennials entering into the real estate market
As millennials have entered the real estate market, the competition for properties has increased. The millennial entry into the market timed with the pandemic rush for life-change created for a perfect storm. The New York Times recently referred to this as “demographic inevitability,” and when dovetailing with other more unexpected conditions it’s created a lot of competition.
Low interest rates
Mortgage rates have been below 3% for months. Rates are now creeping above 3%, which will eventually alter the buying power of some buyers. However, from an historical perspective, even a 4% rate is low.
Bottom Line for the Ponte Vedra Real Estate Market And Surrounding Areas
Just like any other product, it is about supply and demand. If our housing demand continues to outpace our housing supply, we will remain a competitive seller’s market. This last chart shows the supply change since 2019. At this point, there is no obvious end in sight.
Note: Statistics pulled are for single family homes in 32082 from a data export on 11/6/2021. Numbers may shift if sales are added to the MLS.
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About the Author:
Gwinn Volen is a top real estate agent in Jacksonville, FL. She and her team have over $100M in sales for 2021. As a former librarian (yes, a librarian!), she has a penchant for research, data, and friendly directness. She lives in Ponte Vedra Beach with her two teenage sons, husband, and many pets
