By Gwinn Volen
I talk to a lot of people every day about the real estate market. Where is it going? How are we doing? The bottom line is we don’t really know where we will be in 6 months. We have no historical references for pandemics. In the past five recessions, real estate was up in three out of five of them which is encouraging. And the housing market looks nothing like it did in 2008, which is another positive.
Anecdotally, I can say showings are down on my listings these last two weeks, as people are just personally distracted and homebound. Who has toilet paper? Online school? Where’s my routine?
But my hope is we will see pent up demand once we hit the other side of the Corona curve. Mortgage rates remain historically low, which still gives buyers more house for their dollar. And, of all places to live, Ponte Vedra Beach is pretty fabulous.
It would not shock me at all if in the coming months if we were to see an influx of people from high-density areas who want a change in lifestyle including breathing room as well as no state income tax. I’ve had three calls in the last week from buyers in New York, New Jersey and Atlanta with that line of thinking.
Have said all that, I’m a big believer in leaning on data to help us understand where we are rather than pontificating and speculating. So now that March has closed out, here is what the Ponte Vedra Beach Real Estate Market looked like for March 2020 – a few weeks into the pandemic.
Ponte Vedra Beach Real Estate Had a Strong March
The charts* below tell the story. As of right now, the market is still strong. Though new inventory is down 4% from this time last year as sellers press pause on their plans, closed sales were up 7%. Sales price was up 8%, and there is a 6 months supply of homes, down 12% from last year.
Months supply is real estate’s indicator of supply and demand. A six months supply indicates we have a balanced market, where neither buyer or seller is favored.
These graphs are interactive, and you can see the numbers going back as far as 2003. For data nerds, this is interesting!
Closed Sales for March Were Up 7.7% Over Last Year
New Listings for March Were Down 4% Over Last Year
Sales Price for March Was Up 8% Over Last Year
Months Supply for March Is Down 12% From Last Year
Where is Ponte Vedra Real Estate Headed?
So much has to do with mindset right now. Inventory may continue to drop over the next few weeks. For deal seekers, there may be a deal or two out there in the next few months, but if inventory doesn’t shoot up, there’s no reason to believe we will see major dips in prices. Of course, if we enter into an economic phase were sellers are forced into selling due to job loss or other economic issues, it’ll be a different story. Right now, it’s too soon to tell.
*This is looking at homes only (not condos) and is covering all price points. Things can look very differently depending on price point and neigbhorhood. For questions about your particular price point or neigbhorhood, contact me.
About the Author:
Gwinn Volen is a Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Realty, Atlantic Partners and Founder of the Ponte Vedra Focus Blog.