By Gwinn Volen
National home sales statistics show that as of November 2019 (end of year data has not been calculated), total home sales in the US were up 3.5% from 2018 for single-family homes with a total of 4.79M home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. The same data shows that the median home sales price was up 5.4% at $274,000, and months supply was 3.6 months, down 10% from 2018.
Florida’s closed sales numbers for single-family residences were up 6.1% in November 2019 from 2018, and the median sales price was up 3.9% according to the Florida Realtors Association. Months supply also decreased by 12.2% to 3.6 months.
So, what did the local market for Ponte Vedra Beach look like for 2019?
As of December 2019, total closed home sales in Ponte Vedra Beach, 32082, (single-family homes, condos excluded) were at 609 closed sales, up 4.3%, which is just above the national average.
The median sales price of $665,000 is up 4.5%. Months supply is 6.3, down 8.7% from last year, and median days on the market is pretty flat at 64 days, up 1.6% from 2018.
Ponte Vedra Beach has an overall larger supply of homes than the national average. However, at a 6 months supply of inventory, it is considered a healthy and balanced market. A months supply of fewer than 6 months is considered a seller’s market, and a months supply above 6 months is considered a buyers market.
However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. It’s important to look at individual price points in addition to location.
Ponte Vedra Beach Real Estate By Price Point
The $0K to $500K price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 29% of the real estate market.
Neighborhoods: Fairfield, L’Atrium, Fiddlers Marsh, Seaside, Odom’s Mill, Sawmill Lakes, Solana Cay, Solana Woods, Dolphin Cove, Sub-communities TPC Sawgrass (Hammock Cove, Bridgewater, Bermuda Court, Oakbridge,), Hidden Oaks, Oceans Edge, Sawgrass CC, Old Palm Valley, Sandy Oaks, Ponte Vedra Lakes, Ponte Vedra Landing, Summerfield, Turtle Shores
The under $500,000 market saw a decrease in closed sales of .5% with a total of 182 home closings. The median sale price of $366,450 was down 3.3%, and the current month’s supply is very low at 3 months. Days on the market for 2019 was at 54 days which is significantly down from 2018, and sellers are getting on average 97% of their list price.
This price point and its numbers are right in line with the national market averages. It is a seller’s market. There isn’t much inventory, and this is a desirable price point for first-time homebuyers, downsizers, and people on a budget interested in St Johns County Schools. Properties move quickly at close to list price in this price range. As far as the price decrease, it’s likely that this is a small correction to over-ambitious pricing last year.
In this overall analysis, I purposefully exclude generalizations and summary statistics on price per foot. It’s too nuanced. It absolutely varies depending on location. And, not every square foot is equal (would you compare a 1970s GMC Gremlin with a 2020 Maybach). So, having said that, the high price per foot sales in this price range were property flips in Dolphin Cove and L’Atrium. Both hot areas. The predominant neighborhoods with sold properties in this price range are Dolphin Cove/Ponte Vedra Landing – 27 homes, L’Atrium/Fiddlers – 21 homes, TPC Sawgrass (predominately Oakbridge) – 27, and Fairfield/Azalea Point – 15 homes.
The $500K to $1M price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 49% of the real estate market.
Neighborhoods: Sub-communities in TPC Sawgrass (Cypress Creek, North Cove, Salt Creek), Avalon, Marsh Landing, Plantation, Plantation Oaks, Las Palmas, Sawmill Lakes, Ponte Vedra By the Sea, Balmaseda, South Ponte Vedra, Sawgrass CC, Seaview Park, Payasada, Woodlands, Eagles Cove, Magnolia Hammock, Turtle Shores, Beachside, Palm Valley
Closed sales saw a slight increase in this price range, at a total of 296 closed home sales, up 2.8%. The median sales price was pretty flat at $700,000, only a .8% increase. There is a 6 month supply of homes, which indicates it’s a balanced market, and that number is down 10% from the year prior. This indicates this price point is moving well. Median days on the market is also seeing a positive trend with median days on the market of 66, down 9.6% from December of 2018. Sellers are getting an average of 97% of list price.
Buyers in this market have more choice, but sellers should be happy to see that supply and days to contract have dropped.
The high per foot winners in this market are South Ponte Vedra and Roscoe – location, location. Other communities that garner a higher price per foot are patio homes in TPC Sawgrass and Sawgrass CC and Seaview Park – community off of Solana just prior to Le Master Drive and San Juan Drive.
There are numerous neighborhoods with homes in this price point, but of the larger communities TPC Sawgrass had 46 of the sales, Marsh Landing had 39 and The Plantation had 17.
The $1M to $1.5M price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 11% of the real estate market.
Neighborhoods: The Plantation, Marsh Landing (holds the majority), South Ponte Vedra Oceanfront, TPC Sawgrass (Seven Mile, Sawgrass Island), Sawgrass CC, Roscoe, Ponte Vedra Blvd Westside, Palms at Old Ponte Vedra, Eventide, Old PV Land, Estates at Ponte Vedra, and Avalon.
Closed sales are decidedly up in this price point. There were a total of 68 closed home sales, up 19.3% from last year. The median sales prices was $1,227,500, which is up 4.5%. There is 8.4 months of supply in this price range, up 23.6% from last year. Median days on the market is at 79 days, which is down 35.8% from last year. And homes at this price point sold for a median of 95% of the list price.
Buyers have the advantage in this price category given the larger supply of homes. However, the increase in sales is definitely a positive. Florida is seeing more affluent buyers relocating from states like NY, CA and NJ where state income taxes are high, and the decrease in the days on the market shows that properties are moving, even if the inventory is higher. It’s unclear why there was such an increase in supply.
19 of the closed sales in this price point were in Marsh Landing. Next is The Plantation at 9 sales.
Price per foot yet again is tough to look at. If you pull out Roscoe, South Ponte Vedra, new builds, and Old Ponte Vedra land, the high price per foot sales were knock out renovations in The Plantation. Next in line was a property in Sawgrass Country Club, which is hands down one of the most desirable communities around where you are seeing tear downs and major redos.
The $1.5M to $2M price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 5% of the real estate market.
There were 33 closed home sales in the 1.5M to 2M price range, an increase of 22.2%. The median sales price was $1,675,000, down 7.8%. There is a 10.9 month supply though, which is up 7.9%, and days on the market is at a median of 83 days, which is down 23.1%. Homes at this price point go for a median of 95% of the list price.
Sales prices are down, and if I had to guess, this is due to ambitious and unrealistic pricing. There is a generous supply of homes, so smart pricing is important. Buyers in this price point expect a lot, so if your home has not been updated in the last 4 years with pinterest-worthy finishes, you either need to have a primo location (Old Ponte Vedra) or a massive amount of square footage (and even then if there is a lot of work buyers will balk at the price) to push the price. Communities in Ponte Vedra Beach are aging. Homes built in the 1990s-2000s are in need of facelifts and in some cases, a major overhaul. Sellers should not expect to get top dollar for a home with dated finishes, regardless of what they paid when they purchased.
The $2M to $2.5M price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 2% of the real estate market.
Neighborhoods: Old Ponte Vedra, South Ponte Vedra Oceanfront, Ponte Vedra Blvd West Side, Marsh Landing, and Roscoe
There were 11 home sales in this price category, which is up 37.5% from last year. The median sales price was $2.2M, up 3.5%, and there is a 7 months supply of homes, down 31.1%. Sellers got 92.5% of list price in this price range.
Once you surpass the $2M price point, the data samples become very small, and it’s hard to draw too many conclusions. As a side note, it also becomes increasingly difficult to accurately price homes, as there aren’t a lot of comparables.
Though a small set of data, it’s certainly positive to see such a substantial jump in the sales price. Additionally, I’d still say this is a balanced market leaning neither towards sellers or buyers even though supply is over 6 months. Three of the sales were in Old Ponte Vedra, 2 on Roscoe, and then you have, 4 in Marsh Landing, 1 in South Ponte Vedra, and 1 on the West side of Ponte Vedra Blvd.
The $2.5M to $3M price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 1% of the real estate market.
Neighborhoods: Old Ponte Vedra, Marsh Landing, Plantation, Roscoe
There were 4 closed home sales in this price point for 2019, down 20% from last year. The median sales price was$2,725,000, up 4.8%. the median days on the market was 137. There is a 6 months supply of homes, which is up 32.6%. Sellers received 91.5% of the list price in this price range.
With such a small data sample, I wouldn’t read into the fact that sales are down and supply is up. As you move into these higher price points and smaller sets of comparables, it is just more difficult for agents and sellers to understand what market price is and what the market will bear. Additionally, once you surpass the $2.5M price point in the area, the number of qualified buyers diminishes. There is no data to support this, but in my experience, $2.5M is a mental threshold for a lot of buyers.
The list to sold ratio shows that there is more negotiating room. Again, this just comes with the territory. Pricing becomes more subjective, and with fewer buyers, it stands to reason that unless the property fits everything that the buyer wants, they will likely negotiate down based on what little data there is.
The $3M to $4M price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 1% of the real estate market.
Neighborhoods: Old Ponte Vedra, Ponte Vedra Blvd West Side through the 400 block, Oceanfront Lots through the 400 block.
There were 5 closed sales in this price point which is down 37.5%. The median sales price was $3,650,000, up 8.1%. The median days on the market here was 29 days. There is a 4.4 months supply, and sellers got 95% of their list price in this price range.
Again, this is a very small sample of data to analyze. The same conclusions as seen in the $2.5M to$3M price point apply here as well – fewer buyers and fewer comps. Two of the sales were large new builds in Old Ponte Vedra and both went within days of being on the market. They were examples of homes that had major style points and had the location, views and square footage to back up the high dollar prices. They also represent a new trend in Old Ponte Vedra, as some of the recent new builds start to trade. As far as the other sales go, 2 were oceanfront “lots,” and 1 was on the West side of Ponte Vedra Blvd, near the Ponte Vedra Inn & Club.
The $4M+ price range in Ponte Vedra Beach represents 2% of the real estate market.
Neighborhoods: Oceanfront, Ponte Vedra Blvd West Side Through the 400 Block, Harbour Island (Marsh Landing)
There were 10 closed sales in this very broad price category of $4M+. Those numbers are up 25% from 2018. The median sales price was $5,960,000, up 7.4%. There is a 9.7 supply, which is down 22.4%. And sellers received 96.4% of the list price.
There is no real analysis that can be done with this broad price range. I could have broken out the $4M to $5M range as there were 5 homes that sold in that price point, and the $6M range as there were four homes sales. But there was only one home sold in the $5M range and one $7M, so I elected to put this exclusive price range together. The point in lumping all of these homes together is that there are just not a lot of sales to dissect. You are dealing almost exclusively with oceanfront property, and you are dealing with an exclusive set of buyers.
Median Home Sale Price for Single-Family Homes in Ponte Vedra Beach
Note: This data is as of January 9, 2019.
About the Author: Gwinn Volen is a top real estate agent at Keller Williams, Luxury International, specializing in the Ponte Vedra Beach and greater Jacksonville area.