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Q1 Real Estate Sales: Real Estate Market Restrained and Yet Prices Are Inching Up

By Gwinn Volen

Analysts and talking heads have speculated for months now that the real estate market could crash. The western half of the US has seen some bigger declines, but a crash is definitely not the case in NE Florida.

The reason for this is that supply remains low in our area. An over-supply is what ultimately would drive drastic price cuts.

Additionally, Florida continues to see an influx of newcomers. According to Census data, Florida was the fastest growing state in 2022.

Though Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 show a dip in sale prices for most areas in NE Florida, monthly trends for 2023 indicate an uptick in pricing.

The economy, mortgage rates and headlines all contributed to the dips we’ve seen, but with inventory as low as it is and prices inching up, it’s reasonable to say our market is healthy and continues to trend towards a seller’s market.

Median Sales Price for Last 12 Months
(Duval and St. Johns Counties)

It should be noted that there are fewer buyers out there due to higher mortgage rates. Closed sales are down over 20+% from last year, though we expect an uptick in purchase activity in the spring market. March sales, as an example, were up 41% over February sales.

With fewer, less aggressive buyers, sellers should also expect a slightly longer sales cycle versus Spring 2022. Additionally, peak viewing times aren’t necessarily the first few days the home is on the market.

Median Days on the Market for the Last 12 Months
(Duval and St. Johns Counties)

To summarize, buyers waiting to score a deal in our area will likely have a long wait. And in niche areas like Old Ponte Vedra Beach or anything East of A1A, buyers holding out for a crash will likely be disappointed. Should we move into an economic recession, mortgage rates will adjust down, countering any downward market pressure.

About the Author

Gwinn Volen is the owner of The Volen GroupKeller Williams Luxury International a Ponte Vedra Beach top producing real estate team selling in Northeast Florida with annual sales of over $100M.

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