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Q3 Stats, National Trends & Adjusting Market

by Gwinn Volen

LOCAL STATS

Q3 stats indicate the Jacksonville real estate market is relatively flat. Sales prices were up 1.5% from Q2 and flat (0.0%) from Q3 2022. Closed sales are down -13.7% from Q2 and -9% from Q3 2022. Days on the Market is up 6.7% from Q2 and 14.3% from Q3 2022 as buyers stand on the sidelines watching mortgage rates and the economy.

If we look at the beach market only (Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Jax Beach, and Ponte Vedra Beach) sales prices are down -2.6% from Q2 and -1.3% from Q3 2022 with closed sales down -16.7% from Q2 but up 12.4% from Q3 2022.

Nocatee sales prices are up 2.8% from Q2 and 3.2% from Q3 2022 with closed sales down -3.7% from Q2 and -9.9% from Q3 2022. If I were to speculate I’d say those numbers are due to Nocatee being more affordable than beach communities and the homes are newer.

NATIONAL STATS

The lefthand chart shows the 4% national average home appreciation over time. Prices were 21% above the trend in ‘06 to ’08 prior to the crash. Prices are currently 7% above the trend. This would suggest that we will see a regression to the mean, as is currently occurring. The chart on the right clearly depicts this year-over-year slowdown, likely due to rising interest rates and the end of the post-COVID migration.

WHAT IT MEANS

Though the national real estate boom of the last few years has slowed significantly, the Jax market, beach, and Nocatee communities in particular, are displaying some resilience. We are seeing a decline in sales volume but sales prices have held their ground. Barring a macro-level event, I would expect a quiet Q4 and then potentially a slight uptick in Q1 sales volume, if the modest easing of credit we’re seeing continues.

US MEDIAN HOME PRICES – ANNUAL

US HOME SALES – MONTHLY


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About the Author

Gwinn Volen is the owner of The Volen GroupKeller Williams Luxury International a Ponte Vedra Beach top-producing real estate team selling in Northeast Florida with annual sales of over $100M.

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