Found 18 blog entries tagged as market update.

The US housing market has been a seller's market for the past few years. But is that changing as inventory rises?

What Is a Balanced Market?

A real estate market is considered balanced when there is a supply of approximately five to seven months of homes for sale. In a balanced market, neither the seller nor the buyer has a clear upper hand. Prices tend to balance out as more choices become available. It's supply and demand.

Nationally, the year started with a three-month supply which has increased throughout the year to four months, a signal that the US housing market is moving closer to a balanced market.  And yet, even with the increase in housing inventory, we aren't seeing a glut of inventory which would signal a crash. 

The below chart…

458 Views, 2 Comments

Read Full Post

by Gwinn Volen

“‘Massive’ Housing Bubble About to Burst.” “The Housing Market Hit A Wall In May/June.” “Why Are Home Prices Still Rising?” “Home Prices Are Still Sky-High.”

Even the experts can’t figure it out. But the general consensus is that high interest rates are keeping supply low as existing homeowners are hesitant to swap a low-interest rate mortgage for a high interest rate mortgage. Despite high interest rates deterring some, many buyers still need to move for various personal reasons, which is sustaining current inventory prices.


Market Overview

As most of you savvy readers know, real estate is a “local” business. What is happening in the broader marketplace may not be happening in your local market.

So, here is what is…

338 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

by Gwinn Volen

LOCAL STATS

Q3 stats indicate the Jacksonville real estate market is relatively flat. Sales prices were up 1.5% from Q2 and flat (0.0%) from Q3 2022. Closed sales are down -13.7% from Q2 and -9% from Q3 2022. Days on the Market is up 6.7% from Q2 and 14.3% from Q3 2022 as buyers stand on the sidelines watching mortgage rates and the economy.

If we look at the beach market only (Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Jax Beach, and Ponte Vedra Beach) sales prices are down -2.6% from Q2 and -1.3% from Q3 2022 with closed sales down -16.7% from Q2 but up 12.4% from Q3 2022.

Nocatee sales prices are up 2.8% from Q2 and 3.2% from Q3 2022 with closed sales down -3.7% from Q2 and -9.9% from Q3 2022. If I were to speculate I would say those…

144 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

By Gwinn Volen

Analysts and talking heads have speculated for months now that the real estate market could crash. The western half of the US has seen some bigger declines, but a crash is definitely not the case in NE Florida.

The reason for this is that supply remains low in our area. An over-supply is what ultimately would drive drastic price cuts.

Additionally, Florida continues to see an influx of newcomers. According to Census data, Florida was the fastest growing state in 2022.

Though Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 show a dip in sale prices for most areas in NE Florida, monthly trends for 2023 indicate an uptick in pricing.

The economy, mortgage rates and headlines all contributed to the dips we’ve seen, but with inventory as low as it is and…

67 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

Is the Market Crashing? 

No. The balance between supply and demand is what affects prices, and in the greater Jacksonville market, we are at 3 months of supply which still indicates a seller’s market (6 months is a balanced market). We expect inventory to rise some in the Spring, but supply will still remain relatively low. We don’t expect homes to appreciate at the pace it has for the last two years. For 2022, the greater Jacksonville real estate market median sale price saw an 18% increase over 2021, and 2021 was up 18% from 2020. Historical average appreciation nationally is 4%, while our area enjoys a slightly higher historical average of 6%. Keep in mind, Florida is still a tax friendly destination state so we should continue to reap the…

109 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

By Gwinn Volen

We are moving towards a balanced market in Ponte Vedra Beach and its nearby communities.

Real estate market health is best measured by months supply of homes. Months supply measures the number of months it would take to sell all the current homes on the market given the current sales pace. Six months of supply is considered a balanced market where home prices are appreciating at a moderate pace. Lower supply causes home prices to appreciate more rapidly (demand high, supply low). Months supply for single family homes in 32082 for September 2022 was 5.1 months, in August it was 3.6 months and in September '21 it was 1.7 months. 


months supply chart in 32082

As supply increases, appreciation is slowing. In the Beaches area, median home prices are up 22%…

82 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

By Gwinn Volen

Many a homebuyer interested in buying out there is asking, "is there an end in sight?"

Unfortunately for buyers, and the bleary-eyed agents trying to help them find homes, the data, as well as expert opinion, suggests there is no immediate end coming to this frenzied market.

First, the data.

Ponte Vedra Beach and Nocatee: Real Estate Over The Last 15 Years

If you look at the graph below, the trend is clear. Our area is at an all time low in terms of supply. Back in the bubble days of 2006-2007 in Ponte Vedra Beach there was a range of total inventory showing a low of 5 months and a high of 19 months. Currently, there is just 1 month of inventory. Though you see a slight upward tick as we closed out May, there has not been a…

120 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

By Gwinn Volen

The average list to sold ratio in the Ponte Vedra Beach (32082) real estate market for the month of April was 100.5% while in Nocatee (32081), the average list to sold ratio was 102.4%. That means, when taking all price points into account, the closed sales prices in April were, on average, .5% above the list price in Ponte Vedra Beach and 2.4% above list price in Nocatee.

oceanfront condominiums in ponte vedra beach

Right now, listing prices are functioning more as the "suggested list price" or starting point. If you've seen the Tik Tok "Who Wants to Buy Apple," you'll get the gist.

Key Points For Buyers to Understand

  • There really are no deals right now. If you are hoping to have leverage and negotiation power, this is not the market for you.
  • There is a…

52 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

By Gwinn Volen

Should buyers hold off in this crazy market? The two most important questions to ask are: a) will homes continue to appreciate and b) are mortgage rates going to rise. If the answer is yes to both of these questions, then purchasing now, even in this competitive space, is the smarter move.

Multiple offers are the new normal here in Northeast Florida and in other highly desirable areas. Buyers need to understand that they will likely pay more than they want to, and that it's an incredibly competitive landscape where acting quickly is critical, as is a clean, well-executed offer with as few contingencies as possible.

As painful as that feels as a buyer, it is the new real estate reality. But, there is good news.

Everything points…

57 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post

By Gwinn Volen

January's real estate statistics are in, and our market continues to see incredibly low inventory, creating a frenzy when a home hits the market.

News reports show that more than 1,000 new residents are moving to Florida daily. This is evident in the multiple offer situations we are seeing, at every price point, including the luxury market. Take a look at the recent under contract homes in Old Ponte Vedra, as an example. Both of these properties went under contract in under two days.

Ponte Vedra Beach housing inventory continues to linger at 1.5 months, down 67% from last January. Nocatee has only .5 months worth of inventory. Blink and any new listings are under contract. Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market, so…

61 Views, 0 Comments

Read Full Post
Next
View All Results