Is the Market Crashing?
No. The balance between supply and demand is what affects prices, and in the greater Jacksonville market, we are at 3 months of supply which still indicates a seller’s market (6 months is a balanced market). We expect inventory to rise some in the Spring, but supply will still remain relatively low. We don’t expect homes to appreciate at the pace it has for the last two years. For 2022, the greater Jacksonville real estate market median sale price saw an 18% increase over 2021, and 2021 was up 18% from 2020. Historical average appreciation nationally is 4%, while our area enjoys a slightly higher historical average of 6%. Keep in mind, Florida is still a tax friendly destination state so we should continue to reap the rewards of population growth. In contrast, other parts of the country are experiencing major real estate corrections. Our expectation is 2023 will be fairly flat as the market begins to adjust from the frenzy of the last two years.
Why Am I Seeing So Many Price Reductions?
The reason you are seeing price reductions is because some sellers have had unrealistic expectations as to where their home should be priced. Q2 and Q3 in 2022 had exceptionally high closed sales prices which colored some sellers’ and agents’ perspectives. In Jacksonville, Q4 of 2022 showed a 4% decline in closed sales prices from the previous quarter. That, coupled with the seasonal slow down, has created a sense of falling prices. Additionally, it is just really challenging to price right now so some list prices are missing the mark. Normally we look at previous 6 months closed sales data. However, that is proving inaccurate, so we are pricing just as much off active inventory as closed inventory.
How Long Should I Expect My Home to be On the Market?
It depends. Days on the Market, which is our indicator for how long it takes for a property to go pending, is very neighborhood and price point specific. Months Supply is our indicator for how long it would take to move all the current housing inventory. Higher end homes typically take longer to sell, and yet it really depends on when the ready buyer takes action and if that buyer feels the price is fair. When priced appropriately, sellers should still expect steady viewings the first few weeks their home is on the market. Generally after 11 showings, if you don’t have an offer, it means there is something wrong with the price. For non-luxury properties, we usually know in two weeks if the price is too aggressive. Average days on the market was 50 days in December, up 130% from December 2021.
Are Homes Still Selling For List Price or Over-Asking?
Historically, the list to sale ratio in our area has been 96%. In 2021 and much of 2022 the average % of list price received was close to 100%, and in super hot areas like Nocatee, we saw as many as 43% of homes selling for over asking. In December of 2022, the total number of sales in Jacksonville selling for over asking was down 12% from November and 65% from December 2021. For 2023, as the market moves toward equilibrium, we should normalize to historical norms, ~96%.
Should I Just Wait to Sell My Home for a Few More Years?
If you want to make a change don’t let the real estate market dictate your life. You’ve accrued incredible equity in the last 2 years. Like the stock market, no one can predict market tops or bottoms. Prices fluctuate and waiting for the high (or a low if you are a buyer) is a futile effort.
2022 Quarterly Review
Here's a quarterly snapshot of Sales Price, Days on the Market and Closed Sales for both Jacksonville (Duval and St. Johns County combined) as well Ponte Vedra Beach (32082) to give you some perspective on the market in 2022.
about the author
Gwinn Volen is a REALTOR, Owner and CEO for The Volen Group, Keller Williams Luxury International, a top real estate team in Northeast Florida's Ponte Vedra Beach community with annual sales of over $100M. For real estate in Ponte Vedra Beach or the surrounding area, contact Gwinn Volen at 904.314.5188 or email thevolengroup@gmail.com.
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