Is the Sky Falling in Jacksonville's Beaches Real Estate Market?

by Gwinn Volen

There is a lot of buzz about where the housing market is going.  A quick Google News search on the term "real estate market," shows there were over 2400 articles about the housing marketing in the last seven days.

We have seen some changes in the real estate market in the last few weeks, but nothing earth-shattering or dire is happening. And if you click past the headlines in most of these articles you will see that experts are not predicting a housing market crash. A stabilization? Sure. A crash? No. There may be some Chicken Littles out there who feel differently, but the experts and the data aren't on board with the crash theory.

Year Over Year and Month over Month Statistics at the Beaches

The Market is Normalizing But Not Tanking. Here's Why...

 As you can see in the local data, home prices have not dropped. In fact, they increased over June, and prices are up over 20% from last July. That's insane appreciation.

The downward trends on closed sales and upward trends on days on the market and price changes, however, do tell a story, as do the trends with new listings and total inventory. Key points:

• Properties are taking a little longer to move. Why? Dare I say greed? Pricing has gotten out of hand. Experts do show appreciation slowing down as you see in the infographic, but it is taking sellers and agents a little time to process and understand this. We've been on a two-year high.
• Price changes are up 60.7% from last year, and 4.65% from June. This is due to the aforementioned point regarding aggressive pricing. If a home is priced too high it will take longer to move.
• Properties east of the Intracoastal always appreciate above the national average. The infographic shows that home prices are predicted to climb at a national average of 10.3% this year which is down from 2021, but still well above the natural typical average of 4%.

• Supply is up due to overpricing and buyer hesitation, but is still very low. We are still in a seller's market. 6 months of inventory represents a healthy, balanced market.
• With new listings down almost 20% from June, prices should remain stable. Classic supply and demand.
• Demand remains high with buyers still coming to Florida. But, because many people don't click beyond headlines, more buyers are circling properties and waiting for the market to drop (which experts say it won't).
• Sellers, like buyers, are nervous. Did they miss the boat? No. Prices may not continue to accelerate at unnatural paces, but this just means the market is moving into a more healthy balance.

Key Takeaways for Sellers and Buyers

It's still a great time to sell your home. When pricing a home in this market, sellers and agents need to focus less on the outlier that sold for an incredibly high price this spring and look to the homes closest in finishes, lot size, and home size and go with the median of those comps when pricing, not the lucky outlier.

Buyers need to understand that waiting may not help them. Prices are slowing down, but the data seems to suggest that prices will continue to rise, but at more modest levels. If you are a buyer and find a home you love in a location that is perfect, it's a good time to buy. 

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